California’s coastal monarch butterflies are slipping closer to the brink, and the latest numbers offer little comfort.
A new annual count released by Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation found roughly 12,260 monarchs overwintering across about 250 sites statewide. That total ranks as the third-lowest since counts began in 1997 and continues a steep long-term decline. Scientists warn that without major changes, monarchs that cluster along California’s coast each winter could disappear within the next 50 years.
The western monarch population once numbered in the millions during the 1980s. After hitting an all-time low of fewer than 2,000 butterflies in 2020, numbers briefly rebounded in the early 2020s before plunging again in 2024. The most recent count, conducted between fall 2025 and early 2026, suggests that fragile recovery has not held.
According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, western monarchs face a greater than 99 percent risk of extinction by 2080. The agency moved in late 2024 to protect monarchs under the Endangered Species Act, but that process has since been delayed amid broader federal efforts to weaken the law.
Xerces biologists point to climate change, habitat loss, and pesticide use as the main drivers of the collapse. During winter surveys, the highest site counts were recorded at Natural Bridges State Beach, a longtime monarch refuge.
Despite the grim outlook, conservation groups stress that individual actions still matter. Protecting overwintering sites, planting native nectar plants and milkweed in appropriate areas, and avoiding pesticides can all help give monarchs a fighting chance to rebound.
Thanks to Zach O’Brien, the Founder and Editor-in-Chief at Active NorCal.